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In an admiring profile published in the UK's New Statesman magazine last Friday (Pedro
Sánchez: Europe's left-wing icon), Pedro Sánchez said that he would "absolutely"
welcome the UK back into the EU. "We miss the UK within the EU," he told journalist
Adam Rasmi: "I think there is a clear need to have the UK on board again, especially
nowadays."
The Spanish premier isn't alone. There's a lot of support for Britain (surely somewhat
sheepishly) returning to the European fold after having left in 2020, both domestically
and across the continent; but it wouldn't be a return to pre-2016 normality. Rather,
the terms of re-entry would almost certainly demand a level of integration that has
always been opposed within the UK and is still deeply unpopular.
A YouGov poll conducted last June found that 55% of Brits and 60% of Spaniards supported
the UK rejoining the EU. That figure was also above 50% in Germany (63%), France
(53%) and Italy (51%). But support for Britain returning on the old terms - i.e.
staying outside the single currency and Schengen Zone - dropped to around 20% in
all four continental nations. In the UK, only 36% of respondents supported rejoining
the EU without the previous exemptions. The message was clear: Britain wants to retain
substantial independence, but Europe would require a bigger commitment.
One wonders what other concessions the EU would squeeze from the UK if it ever tried
to formally rejoin. Would it, for example, seek partial or full repayment of the
€5.4 billion Brexit
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Adjustment Reserve, activated by Brussels in 2020 to help member states deal with
the cost of Britain's withdrawal (from which Spain received about 270 million euros)?
Approval for re-entry among the 27 member nations would need to be unanimous, but
many would name their own specific conditions too. Can we really imagine Spain wasting
an opportunity to extract more concessions over Gibraltar?
As an indication of how tough re-entry negotiations would be, Brussels is already
seeking a so-called "Farage Clause" in the "reset" of post-Brexit relations sought
by British prime minister Keir Starmer. This would commit Britain to paying compensation
if any future government cancelled the terms being negotiated. "We shouldn't be surprised
that the EU is playing hardball," said Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing
Europe, in a recent interview with The Guardian: "After all, they have decided that
we need these agreements more than they do. As such, they will extract every last
concession."
That would also be Brussels' approach if the UK were ever to come knocking at its
door again. One suspects that Britain would emerge from a re-entry agreement much
as the EU did after signing that trade deal with Donald Trump last summer: shafted.
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